Trade surpluses are a habit that is hard to break. China and Germany released large positive monthly balances in the past two days, while the Japanese trade account, which had slipped towards equilibrium during the last recession, is once again running at the pre-crisis rate of a positive 4 per cent of gross domestic product.
Even-handed economists consider such trade surpluses just as disruptive to global harmony as the corresponding deficits. But calls for more consumption from the excess exporters have gone unheeded.
Why? Mercantilist thinking may play a role, especially in China, which may view its huge foreign currency reserves as a form of security. But for Germany and Japan – and for the Netherlands, Taiwan and Sweden, which all run chronic trade surpluses – the surplus can almost be thought of as an accident.
