China has long recognised that more diverse ownership of its currency is A Good Thing. This month's moves to lift restrictions on the circulation of the renminbi in Hong Kong's interbank market are small steps in that general direction.
Progress remains painstaking. The settlement of cross-border trade in renminbi – stage one of the masterplan – is embryonic, accounting for less than 1 per cent of China's total international trade. Six years after Hong Kong banks were first granted licenses to offer renminbi deposit-taking, exchange and remittances, balances have grown to Rmb85bn ($13bn) – less than 3 per cent of the city's deposits in Hong Kong dollars. Liberalising the capital account – stage two – is even less advanced. The number of bonds denominated in Asia-Pacific currencies issued by non-residents ranges from 79,220 in Japanese yen to four in renminbi. Stage three – the renminbi as international reserve currency – looks a long way away.
At bottom, Beijing is conflicted. The more widely the renminbi is owned, the less control China has over its price. The longer China drags its feet, though, the greater the upward pressure on the commodity-focused Aussie, Canadian and Kiwi dollars, which have become renminbi proxies. And the less shy the US will become of evoking the “1971 option”. In August of that year, the US imposed a 10 per cent tariff on dutiable imports, having wearied of imbalances caused by pegged currencies in Japan, France and Britain. Within a week, all three had depegged; the US dropped the tariff months later.