Was the summit of the Group of 20 leading economies in Canada over the weekend a step forward towards co-operation or a step backwards towards disagreement? The answer seems to be both. The call for “growth-friendly fiscal consolidation plans” provides something for everybody. But it assumes what is to be proved: that rapid fiscal consolidation will now support growth, rather than undermine it.
Yet, instead of examining the outcome in detail, I asked myself a broader question: where have we got to? When I did so, I found myself thinking of the British children's game of “pass the parcel”. In this game, a package is passed around until the music stops. Thereupon, a player removes a piece of wrapping paper and the game restarts. The winner removes the last piece of paper and secures the prize.
Our adult game of pass the parcel is far more sophisticated: there are several games going on at once; and there are many parcels, some containing prizes; others containing penalties. The games would be better played co-operatively, as the International Monetary Fund notes in its background paper on the “G20 mutual assessment process” for the summit. But this is very hard to do. For all the fine words, unco-operative outcomes are far more likely.