Speculation that China will soon allow its currency to rise against the US dollar has triggered a surge of activity in the opaque but influential offshore renminbi forwards market, dealers say.
Unusually, much of the trading in recent weeks has focused on short term forwards – from one to three months – as market participants bet on the prospects of an imminent revaluation.
“There has been a huge amount of selling interest at the front end of the market,” said Gerrard Katz, head of currency trading at Standard Chartered in Hong Kong. At StanChart, renminbi/dollar trading volumes have doubled over the past six months, Mr Katz said. Hedge funds, he added, were particularly active at the moment.
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