觀點貿易衝突

WHY A TRADE WAR IS LIKELY TO BREAK OUT THIS YEAR
全球貿易衝突一觸即發?


北京大學金融學教授佩蒂斯:要想理想地解決貿易問題,主要經濟體的政策制定者首先必須理解,這些問題對於其他國家的政策制定者來說是多麼困難。

For two years some commentators have been arguing that the contraction in global demand set off by the 2008 crisis would lead almost inevitably to a trade war, following much the same path that the world took in the 1930s. With anger already being expressed over disordered currency markets by several leaders before the meeting of the Group of Seven wealthy nations in Iqaluit, Canada, next month, it is beginning to look as if 2010 will be the year that proves them right.

兩年來,一些評論人士一直辯稱,2008年危機導致的全球需求萎縮幾乎不可避免地會引發貿易戰,重複上世紀30年代全球走過的老路。在七國集團(G7)峯會下月在加拿大伊卡盧伊特舉行前,數位領導人已表達了對混亂的外匯市場的不滿,看上去2010年似乎將是證明這些評論人士正確性的一年。

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