美國經濟

AMERICA IS ON THE VERGE OF AN EXPORT BOOM
分析:美國出口有望實現繁榮成長


David Hale Global Economics董事長黑爾:新年來臨之際,美國企業相對於日歐企業的競爭力將比一年前提高10%到15%,再加上美元疲軟,美國很有希望實現出口繁榮。

The stock market has enjoyed a healthy rally since March because of rising unemployment. The horror of high unemployment has bolstered equities because of its impact on corporate profits. The US corporate sector has slashed costs during the past year by eliminating more than 8m jobs and trimming the working week to a record low. During the past 18 months the US economy has lost a third more jobs than predicted by econometric models on the basis of the decline in real gross domestic product.

自今年3月以來,由於失業率不斷攀升,股市呈現出良好的反彈態勢。高失業率之所以能提振股市,是因爲它對企業利潤的影響。過去一年,美國企業大幅削減了成本——裁減逾800萬個工作崗位,將每週工作時間削減至創紀錄的低水準。過去18個月,美國所喪失的工作崗位,比計量經濟模型依據實際國內生產毛額(GDP)降幅所計算出的數字還多出三分之一。

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