財富管理

China's GDP is investors' MSG

The trouble with Chinese food – so the cliché goes – is that, half an hour later, you're hungry again. Much the same can be said of Chinese food for thought. No sooner had I digested last week's menu of trading volumes and consumer debt levels, than I found myself craving another portion of economic monosodium glutamate. And, as is the case in the Jade Garden on a Monday night, I didn't have to wait very long.

Earlier this week, Barclays Wealth served up the latest issue of its Compass strategy paper, salivating over the fact that “emerging markets are returning to growth, most notably in China”. Numbers came thick and fast: Chinese GDP growth is on track to hit 8 per cent for 2009; exports from emerging Asia to China account for more than 22 per cent of the total; and Chinese loans are growing at 35 per cent year on year.

On the day before, Merrill Lynch Wealth Management issued a mild health warning over “the potential for an upset” if Chinese policymakers curb this lending. But, before reaching for the Rennies, it concluded: “There appears little appetite for that.”

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