專欄經濟復甦

Green shoots and dud forecasts
沒人知道經濟何時復甦


FT專欄作家布里坦:索羅斯說,經濟不再自由下滑;特里謝暗示,經濟衰退可能見底;金融評論員則在談論「復甦的萌芽」。似乎,我們可以恢復正常生活了。

We have been told by that usual bringer of bad tidings, George Soros, that the “economic freefall” has stopped. The normally cautious president of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, has identified a slowing down of the rate of decrease in gross domestic product and, in some cases, “already a picking up”. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development composite leading indicator shows at least a slight uptick. The admittedly highly erratic Easter UK retail sales figures show an actual increase and surveyors report more property inquiries. Financial commentators talk of “green shoots” and one of them has even suggested that the recession came to an end in April. So – Bank of England dissenting – everything is all right and we can get back to normal life.

通常帶來壞訊息的喬治•索羅斯(George Soros)告訴我們,「自由落體般的經濟下滑」已經停止。一向出言謹慎的歐洲央行行長讓-克勞德•特里謝(Jean-Claude Trichet)則表示,國內生產毛額(GDP)的下滑速度有所放緩,在某些情況下「已出現成長」。經濟合作與發展組織(OECD)的綜合領先指標顯示,經濟至少已出現輕微的好轉。公認變化無常的英國復活節零售數據,實際上出現了成長,建築測量師稱,房地產詢價人數有所上升。金融評論員們談論著「復甦的萌芽」,其中一位甚至表示,經濟衰退已於4月份結束。因此,除了英國央行(BoE)有異議外,一切進展良好,我們可以恢復正常生活了。

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