美國經濟

Fright at the end of the tunnel
Lex專欄:美國經濟難現曙光


過去一週公佈的經濟數據讓許多人看到了美國經濟復甦的曙光,但實際上,負債累累的美國家庭還未經歷痛苦的去槓桿化過程。美國消費者的黑暗前景令他們很難在短期內把美國經濟推出低谷。

Could it be? A few chinks of light over the past week have many claiming to see the light at the end of the tunnel for the US economy. Yesterday's February housing starts data, for example, were blinding, up by 22 per cent versus January, the biggest jump in almost 20 years. Core retail sales (which exclude autos, fuel and food) rose in January and February, following five consecutive month-on-month declines. Elsewhere, the expectations component of the latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment index suggested that potential shoppers were ever so slightly less gloomy.

這可能嗎?過去一週出現的若干亮點令許多人聲稱看到了美國經濟復甦的曙光。例如,週二公佈的2月新屋開工數就極爲炫目——較1月上升22%,創下近20年來最大升幅。剔除汽車、燃料和食品的核心零售額連續5個月環比下降後,在1月和2月都出現了上升。此外,最新的密西根大學消費者信心指數中的預期成分表明,潛在的購物者還真不那麼悲觀。

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