Quixotic, I grant you, after a year in which the lights went out all across the global financial system. But worth a try, even if the caveats have to be set out first.
There is no escape from the fact that the global economy in 2009 will be truly awful. Worse, with surplus countries such as Japan, Germany and China showing no sign of contributing to a solution to global imbalances, subtrend growth is on the cards for some years after the recession comes to an end.
The return of the state as an important actor in the economies of the developed countries takes us into a far from brave new world in terms of animal spirits.
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