Tortured Seoul
南韓的困境


貨幣貶值、股市暴跌、貨幣市場收緊以及信用違約保險成本上升,與此同時,北韓則威脅要切斷兩國所有聯繫。這就是南韓正面臨的問題。

The global bogeymen of deleveraging and frozen credit markets are more fearsome in South Korea than most of Asia. The private sector is heavily indebted and the country's banks depend on overseas wholesale markets for some 12 per cent of their funding. The current account, having moved back into deficit for the first time since the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98, is another red flag for investors. Since the start of the year foreigners have sold a net $24bn of Korean shares, helping drive the won down by a third against the dollar. Like other emerging market economies with current account deficits and short-term external debt, Korea will have difficulty rolling over its borrowings.

相對於大多數亞洲國家,南韓更爲擔心全球普遍擔憂的去槓桿化和信貸市場凍結。南韓民營部門負債率過高,而且南韓銀行近12%的融資依靠海外批發市場。對投資者來說,經常賬戶是另一個危險信號:自1997-98亞洲金融危機以來,南韓經常賬戶首次出現赤字。自年初以來,外國投資者已出售了價值240億美元的南韓股票,一定程度導致韓元對美元貶值三分之一。像其它有經常賬戶赤字和短期外債的新興市場經濟體一樣,南韓想延期還債將會很困難。

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