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Do not mistake Kherson retreat for a crack in Putin’s armour

The act of invasion itself is seen as a victory: it will be as difficult for the Russian president to lose this war as to win it
The writer is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a former Russian diplomat

The order that Russian troops should withdraw from the city of Kherson — the only regional centre they have managed to take since February — is the latest major defeat for Moscow in Ukraine. Just two months ago, the Russian army was forced to flee from all its previously occupied areas of the Kharkiv region.

General Sergei Surovikin, who was appointed commander of Russian troops in Ukraine after the Kharkiv withdrawal, has warned that “difficult decisions” may lie ahead. The loss of Kherson is all the worse because this was one of four occupied Ukrainian regions the Kremlin announced it was annexing at the end of September.

From the start of the invasion, there has been speculation that military failure could lead to the downfall of Vladimir Putin. After all, the Greek and Argentine juntas collapsed after failed military adventures, and unsuccessful colonial wars led to the Carnation Revolution in Portugal and the dismantling of the Salazar-Caetano regime.

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