The big economic surprise of 2021 was the strength of the economic recovery. Another was the surge in inflation that accompanied this recovery, particularly in the US. After the shock from Covid-19 in 2020 and the unexpectedly strong recovery and inflationary surprise of 2021, what might 2022 have in store for us?
The most recent OECD forecast is of global growth of 4.5 per cent in 2022, only modestly below the recovery-boosted growth of 5.6 per cent in the previous year. The OECD also forecasts 4.3 per cent growth for the eurozone in 2022, against 3.7 per cent for the US, but inflation of 4.4 per cent in the US in 2022 against 2.7 per cent in the eurozone.
One can imagine upside risks, even relative to this reasonably attractive scenario.
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