The writer is deputy head of the Middle East and north Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations
President Donald Trump has rolled the dice with his strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. Before he is dragged into a never-ending war on Israel’s terms, he must now do something even more radical: strike a deal on terms that Tehran can accept.
The US hit three facilities inside Iran, including the notorious Fordow site. This is a big psychological blow for Tehran, and will trigger a counter escalation. Iran launched a heavy missile bombardment inside Israel and is also likely to retaliate directly against the US. How Iran hits back depends on several factors. First, it will take stock of its remaining nuclear capabilities. While huge attention has been focused on Fordow, it has distracted from the fact that international inspectors no longer have full visibility over where Iran’s large quantity of highly enriched uranium — the key ingredient for making a bomb — is being stored, and how much of it is left. The threat of reconstituting its nuclear programme gives it some leverage if negotiations with the US resume.