Good morning. The House of Representatives narrowly passed Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” yesterday, leaving the Senate as the final hurdle. As it stands, the bill will add to the already large US fiscal deficit. The bond market moved little on the news. Perhaps fiscal profligacy was priced in. Email us: [email protected]

Retail results

How is the US consumer holding up? And what will be the effect of higher tariffs on consumer prices?

These are two of the biggest questions facing US markets, and they are interrelated. Happily, over the past week or so, we have received some insights into both. A series of important US retailers have reported results, including “big box” players Walmart, Target, BJ Wholesale, Home Depot, and Lowe’s; as well as specialists TJX, Ross Stores, Urban Outfitters, Ralph Lauren and Williams Sonoma.