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Decoding recent moves in Treasury yields

Uncertainty is high — but maybe not disastrously so
Even without Trump’s tariffs and fears of a slowdown, this was set to be a jittery year in Treasury markets

Good morning. The S&P 500 fell 2.2 per cent yesterday, after it was revealed US export controls would restrict Nvidia’s sales. Info tech shares fell hard, as investors priced in the possibility of new artificial intelligence restrictions; the Philadelphia Semiconductor index fell 4.1 per cent, with losses for all 30 of its constituents, led by Advanced Micro Devices (down 7.4 per cent) and ASML (down 7 per cent). Email me: [email protected].

Treasury yields and the term premium

Of all the ruckus in markets over the past few weeks, the most concerning part was the rapid rise in Treasury yields, and the momentary positive correlation between equity and Treasury prices. Indeed, by most accounts, this was what caused President Donald Trump to initiate the 90-day pause on tariffs.

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