The writer is the author of ‘Two Hundred Years of Muddling Through: The Surprising Story of the British Economy’
One common thread running through the 2025 year ahead outlooks from banks and asset managers was a near-consensus view that the dollar would strengthen further in the coming 12 months. Like much else in the incoming Trump administration’s agenda, the talk around the value of the greenback has been at times contradictory.
Donald Trump himself, together with many of his key trade policy advisers, has long argued that a strong dollar has made American exports pricey, encouraged imports and cost American manufacturing jobs. Others appointed to key jobs, though, such as Scott Bessent, nominated for the post of Treasury Secretary, have publicly taken a more traditional stance and supported a strong dollar.