America’s traditional allies in Europe and east Asia — not to mention its enemies — are all too aware that Donald Trump wants to keep them guessing over his plans if he is re-elected next month. Yet on some issues his aides say he is crystal-clear.
If Trump returns to the Oval Office, they insist, he would act with vertiginous speed to end the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. All the while, he would threaten ever-higher tariffs to push America’s allies to spend more on defence and to equalise their trading relationship with the US — while also maintaining pressure on China.
The audacious “America first” global agenda envisaged by Trump’s allies, advisers and former — and would-be future — aides, is one in which friends and foes alike would be judged by the same simple metric: their bilateral trading surplus with the US.