Good morning. Is the rally stalling? So far this week, the S&P 500 is off 2 per cent. More Federal Reserve officials are putting zero rate cuts in 2024 on the table. Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee yesterday said the “biggest danger” was housing inflation that does not fall, as it is widely expected to. Steady our nerves: [email protected] and [email protected].
Friday Interview: Philip Tetlock
Philip Tetlock is one of the most influential social scientists in the world. His work ranges widely: he has written extensively about forecasting, judgment, politics and moral values. But he is best known for two books. Expert Political Judgement found that many experts were systematically overconfident about the accuracy of their own predictions. Superforecasters posited that some people are in fact better at predicting the future than others, and that what sets those people apart is a straightforward combination of open-mindedness, attention to detail, good habits, and a bit of technique.