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Rob Arnott: the ‘big market delusion’ in AI stocks

The quant investor on Nvidia, value investing and his old tiff with Cliff Asness

Good morning. Ethan here; Armstrong returns next week. The year of the 100 per cent chance recession ended up being the year the US economy grew 3.1 per cent. This profession is nothing if not humbling. Email me your wisdom born of experience: [email protected]

Friday interview: Rob Arnott

Rob Arnott, whose quant-focused shop Research Affiliates runs $130bn, is perhaps best known as the doyen of “smart beta”, low-cost strategies that try to beat the market a little bit. Below, he speaks with Unhedged about active investing, value’s tough run relative to growth, market efficiency and why he thinks Nvidia’s lofty valuation represents a “big market delusion”. The interview has been edited for clarity and brevity.

Unhedged: Are markets more efficient today than when you started in the business?

Rob Arnott: I don’t think so. In fact, I think the irrational swings in price have gotten slowly but surely bigger. Now that means that the opportunities to do well and to add value are larger, but take longer to play out. 

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