China’s economy will take the spotlight next week as Beijing releases its fourth-quarter reading on gross domestic product — and markets are expecting an uptick in growth following a string of underwhelming readings.
Official data released on Friday showed Chinese consumer prices remained in deflationary territory for a third straight month in December, adding to the pile of challenges policymakers face. But even in the face of falling prices, tepid trade and continuing property market woes, a median forecast from economists polled by Bloomberg points to expectations of a year-on-year rise of 5.2 per cent for GDP in the fourth quarter.
That would be an improvement on growth of 4.9 per cent during the previous three months — partly helped by a flattering base effect thanks to a severe drop in economic activity in late 2023 during the final throes of China’s zero-Covid isolation. Some analysts have pencilled in an even larger jump for fourth-quarter growth, released on Wednesday, with Standard Chartered forecasting a rise of 5.8 per cent.