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FT writers’ predictions for the world in 2024
FT作者對2024年世界的預測

Forecasts for the new year, from who will win the US election to whether Musk’s X is heading for bankruptcy and the future of the Parthenon marbles
對新的一年的預測,從誰將贏得美國大選,到馬斯克的X是否會破產,再到帕臺農神廟大理石的未來。

The Financial Times’s team of crystal ball gazers had their best year for a while in 2023, with only three wrong answers — though we got these pretty wrong. The S&P 500 did not fall by more than 10 per cent, but climbed over 20 per cent (though driven mostly by just seven tech stocks). Europe didn’t experience blackouts, though we said this would happen only in a very cold winter (it wasn’t). And there wasn’t a string of defaults in Africa, though Ethiopia did default this week.

2023年,英國《金融時報》的預測團隊取得了近年來最好的成績,只有三個錯誤的答案——儘管我們對這些答案相當錯誤。標普500指數沒有下跌超過10%,而是上漲了超過20%(儘管主要是由七隻科技股推動)。歐洲沒有經歷停電,儘管我們說這隻會在一個非常寒冷的冬天發生(事實並非如此)。非洲也沒有出現一連串的違約事件,儘管衣索比亞本週確實違約了。

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