破局-2023發展與展望

India’s economic rise is not guaranteed

Without reform New Delhi will be unable to capitalise on the country’s potential

Last year on the 75th anniversary of its independence from British rule, India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, urged the nation to “dominate the world”. India’s rising role in the global economy is indeed becoming harder to ignore. In April, it overtook China as the world’s most populous country. The IMF expects its economy to grow over 6 per cent this year, and investors increasingly see the country as an alternative to China. On Tuesday, as India celebrates 76 years of freedom, a look back at the progress made since Modi’s rallying cry only underscores the good, the bad, and the ugly sides of the country’s new assertiveness.

Optimism surrounding India’s economy has boomed this year. Its stock market has surged as foreign investors have bought into its national growth story. Multinationals have shown an interest in shifting manufacturing to the country as part of “China plus one” diversification strategies, particularly as tensions between Washington and Beijing mount. The government has also played a part. It committed to raising capital spending by a third in its budget in February, building on promising investment in its road, rail and renewable energy infrastructure.

For all the positivity, India’s economic limitations have also been on full display. This year, the Adani group — led by Indian billionaire Gautam Adani, who has close ties to Modi — was accused of “brazen stock manipulation and accounting fraud” by the short seller Hindenburg. Adani denies all the allegations. The affair was a reminder of the country’s longstanding problems with weak corporate governance as well as the government’s championing of industrial conglomerates. Investors remain cautious about the business environment; in the last fiscal year foreign direct investment inflows fell for the first time in a decade.

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