Like a dog to a bone, Donald Trump always returns to tariffs. He is now proposing a modified list of them on a range of countries, including close allies and a number of desperately poor nations, to be imposed on August 1 2025. Will he chicken out, yet again? Who knows? But the chances that he will, or indeed could, get deals able to assuage his irrational mercantilism seem low to non-existent. An irrational man is unpredictable. Maybe this time he means it. If so, May’s already high average US effective tariff level of 8.8 per cent would end up much higher. We would enter a new world.
正如狗總是會回去啃骨頭一樣，唐納•川普(Donald Trump)總會回到關稅上。現在他正拿著一份修改過的關稅稅率清單向一系列國家提議從2025年8月1日起實行，這些國家中包括美國的親密盟友以及一些極度貧困的國家。TACO（Trump Always Chickens Out的首字母縮寫，意思是川普總是臨陣退縮——譯者注）定律會不會再次應驗？誰知道呢？但他達成能夠緩解他非理性重商主義的協議的幾率，看起來微乎其微。一個非理性的人是不可預測的。也許這次他是當真的。如果他是當真的，那麼在2025年5月已經高達8.8%的平均有效關稅將變得更高。我們將進入一個新的世界。