Nobody can know either the future course of the new war in the Middle East or its possible economic effects. I wrote what I could on this in a column entitled “The Economic Consequences of the Israel-Hamas War”, on October 31 2023. The big question, I argued, was whether the conflagration would extend to oil-related production and transport from the Gulf region. This region contains 48 per cent of global proved reserves and produced 33 per cent of the world’s oil in 2022. It also has a chokepoint on exports at the Strait of Hormuz. These realities remain. The question is now mostly about Donald Trump: does he know how to end this war?
誰也不知道中東最新戰爭的未來走向，也不知道它可能對經濟造成的影響。2023年10月31日，我在題爲「以色列-哈馬斯戰爭的經濟影響」(The Economic Consequences of the Israel-Hamas War)的專欄文章中就這一點儘可能寫了我可以寫的東西。我提出，最大的問題是，戰火是否會蔓延到海灣地區與石油有關的生產和運輸。該地區佔全球已探明儲量的48%，2022年石油產量佔全球33%。它還有一個出口咽喉要道——荷莫茲海峽(Strait of Hormuz)。這些現實依然存在。現在的問題主要是關於唐納•川普(Donald Trump)：他知道如何結束這場戰爭嗎？