The writer is senior research fellow for land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute think-tank and has worked extensively in Ukraine during Russia’s full-scale invasion
The Trump administration’s decision to halt US military-technical assistance and the uncertainty around continued intelligence sharing with Kyiv will have consequences that take time to be fully felt. The measures will not cause a rapid deterioration of Ukraine’s ability to resist, but will incur a cost in the lives of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians. They also do nothing to shift the strategic calculus for Kyiv, whose reluctance to accept an American deal on any terms reflects the existential stakes for which President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is negotiating.
The US has been the biggest single military donor to Ukraine. Over the course of the war, US support has expanded to encompass a broad range of capabilities. America made geospatial imagery available to Kyiv early on in the conflict. The loss of this will significantly reduce the tempo of long-range strikes against the Russian military and the accuracy and effectiveness of strikes against both military and strategic targets. The reduced attrition on Russian forces and infrastructure will not have an immediate impact, but it will allow Russia to accumulate more systems to attack Ukraine nearer its borders over time.