A small group of anonymous traders has propelled a dramatic surge in Donald Trump’s perceived chances of winning the US presidential election in prominent prediction markets, according to data analysed by the Financial Times.
On the largest of these sites, cryptocurrency-based exchange Polymarket, Trump’s odds have climbed to 62 per cent as of Thursday night.
However, four anonymous traders have had a noticeably large influence on Trump’s Polymarket odds. These accounts, the largest of which goes by the handle Fredi9999, have since the start of September collectively bought more than $30mn in shares predicting a Trump victory and hold the four largest stakes in the market.
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