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Making sense of a wrong-way bet on the yen
爲何對日元的預測失誤了?

Among the largest developed-market peers, the Japanese currency has lost the most against the dollar this year
3個月前,分析師還預測今年日元將迎來拐點;而今年迄今,在主要發達市場貨幣中,日元對美元匯率跌幅最大。

Just three months ago, many in the analyst community expected that 2024 would mark an inflection point for the yen after three years of the currency falling against the dollar. The consensus forecast was for the yen to appreciate from ¥141 against the US currency at the end of 2023 to ¥135 a year later, according to Bloomberg data.Instead, however, the yen has fallen further, flirting with levels near ¥152. Among the largest developed-market currencies, the yen has lost the most against the dollar so far this year, weakening nearly 7 per cent.

就在3個月前,許多分析人士還預計,在日元對美元匯率連續3年下跌之後,日元將在2024年迎來拐點。彭博(Bloomberg)數據顯示,共識預測是,相比2023年底的1美元兌141日元,日元對美元匯率將在一年後升至1美元兌135日元。

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