Donald Trump was in the snows of Iowa for the US state’s Republican primary on Monday, rather than snowy Davos. But the former president’s name resounded all week through the corridors and coffee bars of the Swiss resort. US executives at the global confab sounded notably more sanguine than foreign business people and political leaders about his potential return. With Trump already closing in on the Republican nomination after his Iowa victory, however, US businesses should be as concerned as non-US counterparts about what this could mean for them, and for the world.US businesses have reason, for now, to project calm. They liked the tax cuts in Trump’s first term, which they expect he would extend in a second. Despite his protectionism, the US economy performed well; stock prices rose. Many US executives are hopeful that the day-to-day running of the economy and business under a Trump 2.0 could be largely ringfenced from shenanigans in the White House, as last time round. And they see no reason to antagonise a man they might soon have to work with again.
Yet a second Trump presidency is being comprehensively planned for in a way the first never was. Trump’s 2016 victory surprised his party. He has since taken over the Republican soul, and a network of conservative think-tanks is preparing detailed policies, databases of suitable staff and even a “training academy” on governing for a Republican president — presumptively Trump. Since he has never been one for policy minutiae, the likelihood is he would simply follow much of the programme, which is available for anyone to read.
The return of a president who tried to overturn the 2020 election result, has vowed retribution, and is armed with a meticulous, highly radical blueprint — even if not every element is objectionable in itself — is not a prospect business or US allies should relish.