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Market optimism about convergence in the global economy is overdone

Governments and central banks in the west, China and Japan still face a bumpy road ahead

The writer is president of Queens’ College, Cambridge, and an adviser to Allianz and GramercyThe first half of 2023 witnessed striking economic and financial dispersion, both within countries and across them. With some of this dispersion reversed in July, there is a growing tendency to forecast convergence in the period ahead, and the favourable set of outcomes that would come with that, from better growth and inflation results to rewarding investment performance. Yet, doing so now would be premature and unwise.

Signs of apparent convergence are multiplying in both economic and financial domains. Consider the following as an illustration:

Long a laggard in significantly lowering its inflation rate, the UK favourably surprised with its lower-than-expected data released in July, fuelling hopes that it will now converge relatively quickly to the lower inflation rates prevailing in other G7 economies.

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