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Promising tax cuts is bad economics — and politics

The chancellor’s fiscal rules give him room for pledges that please the Conservative backbenches but there’s a big caveat

Almost as if last year’s disastrous “mini” Budget had not happened, the Conservative party is again excited about tax cuts promised this autumn. Government sources have been busy briefing that the prime minister wants to lower the income tax rate by 2p in the pound; meanwhile, a group of 50 Tory MPs have demanded the abolition of “morally wrong” inheritance tax.

None of the recent activity should be unexpected for Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, who encouraged such speculation in his March Budget. He promised to make the £9bn a year investment allowances in corporate tax permanent “as soon as we can responsibly do so”, while adding in evidence to MPs that “the Conservative approach is that we bring down taxes when we can”.

Lowering taxes “responsibly” and “when we can” was always said with something of a wink to Tory backbenchers. Ministers thought they only needed to wait until the Autumn Statement for the Office for Budget Responsibility to give them cover for tax cuts.

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