The writer is president of Queens’ College, Cambridge, and an adviser to Allianz and Gramercy
You would think that, after the chastening delivered by last year’s transitory inflation call, consensus forecasters would be more open-minded in how they describe the US recession they see coming in 2023.
Yet they are confidently asserting that this recession will be “short and shallow” and are encouraging us again to “look through” a major development. I worry that this could constitute a repeat of the analytical and behavioural traps that featured in last year’s ill-fated inflation call and whose consequences we are yet to put behind us.
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