There is more than a year to go until Nigeria’s presidential and legislative elections, not that you would know it by the election frenzy already gripping the west African nation of 200mn people. Potential candidates from the two main parties are jostling to succeed Muhammadu Buhari as president of Africa’s biggest economy. For those disenchanted with the past seven uninspiring years, a transition cannot come soon enough.
Who wins is a matter for Nigerians only. The outcome, however, should be of interest to everyone. Nigeria’s population is set to double over the next 30 years to 400mn, by which time it will surpass the US as the world’s third most populous country. A nation of enormous talent and a democracy (of sorts) since 1999, it ought to be an economic powerhouse. Instead, it is in deep trouble. About 90mn Nigerians live in extreme poverty, according to the World Bank. Nearly two-thirds are under 25, but too many lack jobs. Life expectancy is a lowly 55.
All this is a recipe for instability. In the north-east, the government has made some progress against Boko Haram, the Islamist group, though while that threat has receded the danger posed by another Jihadist movement, Islamic State West Africa Province, has risen. In some regions farmers, terrified of armed herders and common bandits, are scared to go to their fields. Kidnapping has become a major moneymaking enterprise. Absence of economic prospects has pushed more people into crime.