For the second year running the pandemic has reshaped the world — not changing everything, but accelerating many things, from population decline to digital revolution. Here is how these trends could define 2022.
Baby bust: Couples had ample opportunity but apparently lacked the desire to bring kids into a shutdown world. Declining birth rates have been lowering global economic growth and fell at a faster pace during the pandemic, including a dramatic drop in China. In the long run, the baby bust will further shrink the world’s labour force. Already, 51 countries have shrinking working-age populations, up from 17 in 2000.
Peak China: Slowed by the baby bust, rising debt and government meddling, China accounted for one-quarter of global GDP growth in 2021, down from one-third pre-pandemic. China’s increasingly sharp turn from trade to “self-reliance” is loosening its ties to other economies. Near perfect five years ago, the correlation between GDP growth in China and other emerging countries barely registers now. China may have peaked as an engine of growth.