What had been labelled “the most unloved bull market in history” came to an end in March. Equity markets sold off as lockdowns to halt the spread of novel coronavirus were implemented — ending a more than decade-long rise in stock markets following the 2008 financial crisis. Now, however, that unloved market has a rival for the title as equity prices recover in a rally driven as much by extraordinary monetary policy and the absence of decent alternatives to stocks as by optimism over the strength of the recovery.
On Monday, the S&P 500 reached the level it had hit before the drop in prices brought on by coronavirus. Investors in the main US index, in fact, were up on the year. Risk assets generally have done well in recent weeks. European stocks have joined in with the rally as have emerging market currencies: the Brazilian real, the country where the virus is now growing fastest, has gained 20 per cent against the dollar since the middle of May.
The recovery in investors’ appetite for taking risks can be explained in part by encouraging economic news on rich countries’ progress out of the lockdown. US jobs figures, published last Friday, pointed to a decline in the unemployment rate and helped to drive stocks higher. Tentative signs from Europe that a recovery is under way and activity is resuming as economies emerge from deep freeze have provided further evidence for those who argue this is no normal recession.