A widely watched US bond market indicator of recession sent its most dire signal since the early days of the financial crisis on Tuesday, reflecting increasing gloom about the economic consequences of the US-China trade war.
Yields on two-year Treasury notes were 5.3 basis points higher than those on the 10-year government bond — the largest gap since March 2007. This kind of inversion of the yield curve — in which shorter-term rates are higher than longer-term ones — has preceded every US recession of the past half century.
At the same time, another closely followed portion of the yield curve — reflecting the difference between the yields on three-month and 10-year Treasury securities — blew past its recent lows, settling at minus 51.4bp.
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