The policy contours of the next administration in Washington are still evolving, but the US and Russia appear to be on the cusp of another period of glasnost, while US gestures towards China have been anything but sweet.
President-elect Donald Trump has already challenged Beijing over Taiwan and the management of its currency, and has threatened to slap tariffs on Chinese goods. Pushing back, Beijing has hinted at restricting access to US companies in one of the world’s largest economies.
The risks are twofold: one macro, one micro. First, an escalation of US-Sino trade tensions represents one of the biggest macro risks to the global economy in 2017. A trade war would subdue global growth and throw sand in the gears of globalisation, while triggering volatility across asset classes. That is not our base case but ranks high on our “what keeps us awake at night” list.
