Back when China formed Postal Savings Bank in 2007, its already-listed banking behemoths garnered valuations of at least twice their book value and enthusiasm for the country knew no bounds. Now PSBC is its fifth-largest bank by assets and is about to brave the Hong Kong market — even though its fellows have not traded near book value in more than a year.
That joins a list of other challenges facing the world’s biggest public offering since Alibaba blasted past fevered expectations and raised a record $25bn in New York two years ago. Looking for between $8bn and $10bn, PSBC is altogether more modest. It will, however, be a far greater litmus test of investor sentiment towards China.
Depending on your view, PSBC is either an unwieldy, undercapitalised, cost-inefficient bricks-and-mortar bank stuck in a bygone era, or a vast, under-exploited savings pool with unique knowledge of under-leveraged rural China, where it lends. The truth is that it is all of those things. The question is, will the glass half-full thinkers be prepared to back it when it launches its offering next month?