Will Angela Merkel still be German chancellor at the end of the year?
No. Although 2015 ended with Ms Merkel receiving a standing ovation at the conference of her ruling Christian Democratic Party (CDU), 2016 is likely to see the end of her long reign as chancellor. That ovation looked like conclusive proof that her job is safe — despite the pressures caused by the arrival of about 1m refugees in Germany in 2015. But Ms Merkel has now promised to reduce refugee flows next year. This is likely to prove undeliverable as desperate migrants, aided by people smugglers, continue to flow in.
Admiration for the chancellor’s courage and moral leadership will give way to uncertainty and discontent. The cracking point could be a revolt from local governments, who pronounce themselves unable to cope with the numbers. That, in turn, would finally provoke a challenge to the chancellor from within the CDU, making her position untenable.