China’s working age population will fall by more than 10 per cent, a loss of 90m people, by 2040, as much of east Asia “gets old before it gets rich”, the World Bank said last week.
The findings conjure up a scenario of a shrinking workforce, sluggish economic growth, rising labour costs as workers become more scarce and increased government spending on pensions, sapping the vitality of one of the world’s key growth engines.
This scenario is widely accepted by economic and financial commentators. It is supposedly one of the great truisms of our time.
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