There are three kinds of policymakers at the Federal Reserve, goes the chatter in the markets: hawks, doves and chickens. It was the third type of bird that was setting policy last week, when the US central bank decided to hold interest rates at their historic low. And while market pricing — as opposed to surveys of economists — had largely anticipated the decision, the Fed still surprised in the extent of its caution, citing China, global financial uncertainties and overly low domestic inflation as reasons to stand still.
Its lack of action will have the biggest impact on other developed country central banks that are also at the zero lower bound of monetary policy. With the euro once again gaining ground against the dollar, the European Central Bank could signal as soon as October that it will expand its quantitative easing programme — perhaps first by extending its end date beyond September 2016 and then by increasing monthly purchases.
The odds have also risen that the Bank of Japan will add to its current accommodation, though it is likely to take longer to decide. And surely the Bank of England, which was seen as the bank most likely to “follow the Fed” and raise rates in its wake, will now be able to hold off in the face of decidedly mixed economic data.