觀點2016美國大選

America’s coming presidential game of thrones

In its early days, the United States was beset by rumours about plots to install a monarchy. Thankfully, in George Washington it had a president who understood the power of precedent. He removed his general’s uniform and gave up power after two terms. Thus was sealed the world’s most enduring republic. More than 200 years later, the US is bracing for the most dynastic contest in its history. The chances that either Hillary Clinton or Jeb Bush will become its 45th president are high. The country’s elections are far more democratic than in Washington’s day. But there are grounds to worry that America is becoming less of a republic.

The odd thing about the prospect of a 2016 “game of thrones” is that Mrs Clinton and Mr Bush would be the two best-qualified candidates to win their party’s nominations. Mrs Clinton has much more experience than any potential rival — and there are not many of those. Having served as secretary of state and twice elected as a US senator, Mrs Clinton would be as fluent in world affairs as any incoming president in recent memory. Only George HW Bush, who had headed the Central Intelligence Agency and served as vice-president, would have been better versed. Many fear the upcoming Democratic primaries will be Mrs Clinton’s coronation. That may be so. But she would take it on merit.

Jeb Bush faces a far more contentious battle than Mrs Clinton. His chances of winning are lower. But the Republicans almost always opt for the establishment candidate in the end — Mitt Romney in 2012, John McCain in 2008, and, of course, Jeb’s brother, George W Bush in 2000. Mr Bush’s prospects might be weaker if there were other viable moderates in the field. But Chris Christie, governor of New Jersey, is too tainted by a Sopranos reputation for irascibility. As a first term senator in his forties, Marco Rubio of Florida sounds too much like Barack Obama.

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