Scotland’s independence campaign has produced some financial market dramas. When an opinion poll showed the Yes vote with a chance of winning, volatility in sterling currency markets soared. Investors worried that without Scotland, the UK would be more likely to leave the EU. But fears have appeared to calm. Sterling has fallen just 1.7 per cent against the dollar, after trimming losses. What markets expect when the poll result is announced tomorrow is indicated by currency options, which show whether investors are betting on sterling falling further or rising on relief. A negative fallout has already occurred in Spanish bond markets, where yields have risen on worries about resurgence in the Catalan independence movement.
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