Only two topics of conversation unite the British – the weather and house prices. Opinions about the latter tend to be strongly held and forcefully argued. Crest Nicholson, a housebuilder, is about to test whether the bulls are willing to back their confidence with cash by launching an initial public offering. Countrywide, an estate agency chain, is also thought to be considering a float.
It is easy to see why they want to go public. Shares in the four largest quoted housebuilders are up an average 75 per cent in the past year. Savills, the largest listed residential estate agent, is up 50 per cent. And while the overall UK housing market is uninspiring (house prices fell 1 per cent in 2012, according to Nationwide, although volumes are ticking up), trends in the south, where Crest owns most of its land, are better.
There are clouds on the horizon, however. Sales, especially of new-builds, are supported by government schemes designed to help buyers. If the economy improves enough to allow the government to drop those schemes, it will not be long before interest rates rise.