What in the world of cocoa, coffee, cotton and cashews is Carson Block up to regarding Olam? One week after the short seller questioned the Singaporean commodity trader’s accounting and debt burden, no explanation has materialised and the shares are off just 5 per cent. Was the timing of the allegations poor or is this unusual shorting strategy yet to play out? Regardless of what comes next, leaving at least five trading days between the claims and any proof is too long.
Mr Block’s approach to Olam is a break from his norm. Previously, attacks through his Muddy Waters outfit have been launched alongside long public reports that allege fraud. But last week’s presentation is not public and there is as yet no report. And Mr Block cannot have been unaware of his audience: the Ira Sohn conferences attract big investor and media coverage. Olam represents not only a new approach by Mr Block but also a different type of target. Muddy Waters claims expertise in Chinese companies. Yet Olam is a Singapore blue-chip of which Temasek, the state investment agency, holds a sixth.
The shorts are certainly primed: short positions in Olam are double their levels earlier this year and represent almost all the stock that can be borrowed, according to Markit, or more than 13 per cent of the shares in total. That is twice as much as the city state’s next most shorted stock. Perhaps Mr Block has devised a form of market rope-a-dope – Olam has denied his claims, although it does not know the full detail of them – and he may be just warming up. Regulators might have something to say about that.