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The melting of the polar ice signals the end of ‘Pax Arctica’

In the 20th century, North America was the world’s luckiest continent. While every other region had very direct and intimate experience of warfare on its territory, the continental US and Canada – “core” North America, as it were – were mercifully exempt.

This century is likely to be far less exceptional. In the South China Sea lie the possible causes of a return of warfare to North American shores.

A stand-off pits an increasingly confident China against Vietnam and the Philippines (as well as Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei) for control of a few small islands – the Spratly Islands, the Paracel Islands, the Macclesfield Bank and the Scarborough Shoal – and with these, significant natural resources and dwindling fish stocks.

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