匯率

Lex_Bureau de change for the worse
Lex專欄:匯率扭曲之怪現狀


從長期趨勢來說,新興市場貨幣對發達市場貨幣理應保持升值,這纔是全球經濟所需要的,而近期的走勢卻正相反。扭曲最終會被糾正,但遺憾的是,它將持續很長時間。

You can hear the screams almost from São Paulo to Tokyo. Data are notoriously unreliable for currencies, but you can bet your bottom dollar that more than the average number of punters are copping a loss from the latest gyrations in foreign exchange markets. It is not as though this pain is the result of a return to some benign exchange rate equilibrium. Indeed, the latest bout of exchange rate turmoil could accentuate the problems facing the global economy.

從聖保羅到東京,幾乎處處哀鴻遍野。說到匯率,衆所周知,數據是不可靠的。但可以肯定的是,在外匯市場最近這輪動盪中,絕大多數的投機者都虧了本。看起來,這次的傷痛並非匯率迴歸某種均衡而造成的。事實上,本輪匯率動盪很可能使全球經濟面臨的問題變得更加嚴重。

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