Markets are bad at valuing low-probability extreme events. Put differently, investors often respond to a radical increase in uncertainty with panic. It is hard to stand still when the Middle East is in turmoil or when there is the risk of a Japanese nuclear catastrophe, let alone both simultaneously. Usually it is clever to get well in front of a stampede. But mass movement of money is a dangerous business.
市場在評估低機率極端事件方面，表現向來不佳。換言之，對於不確定性的驟增，投資者往往做出恐慌的反應。當中東陷入動盪、或日本有可能發生核災難之際，人們很難保持平靜，更遑論兩種情況同時出現。通常，在別人四散逃離時保持鎮定是明智之舉。但大量挪動資金則是一件危險的事情。
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