觀點英國石油

YOU HAVE HAD THE CREDIT CRISIS – NEXT IT WILL BE OIL
石油危機不遠了


太陽能世紀執行主席萊格特:英國石油應對深海採油洩漏風險的失敗,不能不讓人對其應對其它風險的舉措產生懷疑。其中最重要的,就是它是否爲石油供應見頂的風險做好了充足的準備。

As it now admits, BP “did not have the tools” to contain a deepwater oil leak. Its failure with that risk must now raise questions about its approach to other risks. Top of the list must be the threat that global oil production will fall sooner than generally forecast, ambushing oil-dependent economies with a rapidly opening gap between supply and demand. The approach of the point at which global oil supplies reach an apex, “peak oil” as it is often known, worries growing numbers of people. But, until now, BP has poured scorn on the worriers, encouraging the oil industry's effort to reassure society about peak oil. The disaster in the Gulf of Mexico casts doubt on the viability of the deepwater production on which industry forecasts depend.

英國石油(BP)如今承認,它「沒有(遏止深水石油洩漏)的設備」。它未能成功應對這一風險,肯定會讓人們紛紛質疑:它應對其它風險的舉措是否也存在問題?其中人們最關心的,無疑是以下威脅:全球石油產量的下降會比普遍預期的更早,供需缺口迅速拉大將對石油依賴型經濟體造成突然衝擊。全球石油供應見頂(即人們常說的「石油峯值」)之時日益臨近,令越來越多的人感到擔心。但迄今爲止,英國石油一直對此類人嗤之以鼻,慫恿石油業努力打消社會對石油峯值的擔心。此次墨西哥灣發生的災難,讓人們對深水採油的可行性產生了懷疑,而深水採油是石油業賴以作出預測的基礎。

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