Beijing doesn't seem to know there is a recovery under way. Spoiling the party, it revealed on Tuesday that Chinese exports fell 23 per cent in April compared with last year. That is worse than March's 17 per cent fall, and falls short of economists' forecasts too.
Still, there is some solace for determined optimists. Prolonged Chinese New Year holidays may have pushed production and shipments into March; that, along with an easing in trade finance, boosted the March figure. Indeed, if you take official data at face value, on a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, April exports increased 7 per cent, a fraction of March's 33 per cent growth, but still a positive sign. (Private sector economists demur, however, instead calculating a 1 per cent to 3 per cent month-on-month fall.) Furthermore, national investment data, also released on Tuesday, buoyed bull spirits. With the government shovelling money into the economy – and specifically infrastructure projects – investment leapt 30.5 per cent year-on-year in the first four months of the year.
But there remain considerable risks. Global consumption has not bounced back; until it does, China will be one engine down. Exports to the European Union, China's biggest market, fell 27.5 per cent year-on-year in April. True, there have been some perkier personal consumption data out of the US. But, from China's point of view, lower prices dull the gloss: US import prices fell 0.6 per cent in the month to March, the fourth consecutive drop, according to US data.